Left, Right, or Straight_6 Analysis

 

Left, Right, or Straight_6 Analysis

Leg 18 from the ultra-long course of the Norwegian Championship on 12 May 2019 (in class M19-20)

Upon a quick review of the GPS tracks, it appears that the right route falls significantly behind the left route, despite its brief extension and the majority being on a well-maintained road.

This appears to be a cleverly devised trap by the course setter, resulting in a potential loss of at least one minute for those who opted for the seemingly advantageous larger road without considering the challenges of the subsequent section leading to the control point.

Among those with GPS trackers, 9 out of 10 participants opted for the left route.

Let's delve deeper into these two routes and examine the competitors' outcomes more thoroughly.

Leg 18 spans approximately 1700 meters, with KP18 situated 25 meters higher than KP17. This suggests that it was logical for competitors to choose a route that involved less descent to minimize the subsequent climb.

The right route covers 1980 meters, featuring an initially easy stretch on a broad forest road with a descent of 75 meters. However, a steep ascent on a rocky hill follows 65 meters after the road, just before approaching the control point.

The left route is about 2250 meters, mostly on a trail, albeit one on frequently boggy terrain.

In the initial part of this leg, there is a 50-meter descent, followed by a gradual 25-meter climb along the trail, leading to the approach to control 18 without gaining altitude along the slope.

The winner, Kasper Fosser, exhibited superior speed throughout the course and on this particular leg, winning by 54 seconds over the competitor who chose the same route and by 1.31 over the one who took the right-hand route.

However, when comparing Jørgen Baklid's time (the sole participant who took the right route) with competitors of similar running speeds, it becomes evident that the left and right routes yield comparable results.

Analysing the splits of the 3rd and 4th placed competitors on the course (Jørgen Baklid and Sander Arntzen), who had similar overall times and comparable performances on the legs leading to leg 18 ( Particularly noteworthy is their performance on run 10-11, where both took around 12 minutes),  reveals interesting insights. Their time on the leg 18 is roughly equal. 

An intriguing speed statistic emerged at leg 18, showcasing an 18-minute per km hill climb on the right route, a pace three times slower than the section with a gentle climb on the left route.

Kasper Fosser maintained an impressive pace of 4.30 min/km.

Sander Arntzen, finishing in 4th place on the same right-hand route, had a pace of 5.14 min/km.

The second-place runner on the leg and the entire course, Lukas Liland, achieved a pace of 4.48 min/km. However, it seems he didn't execute the route flawlessly and could have narrowed the gap to Kasper on this leg.

sources: http://3drerun.worldofo.com/2d/?lidstr=20190512ultraH1920

http://obasen.orientering.se/winsplits/online/en/default.asp?page=table&databaseId=62449&categoryId=4

Aleksandr Alekseyonok, January 31, 2024

My book on orienteering for advanced athletes