Route Choice Prediction #3

In  Route Choice Prediction series I pick a leg, predict the most optimal route, and only then check it against the real athletes's tracks.

Today I chose Leg 3 from Stage 7 of the Swedish League 2025. It was a long-distance race in the Women’s 20 Elite class.

Right away, I would say that the fastest route is likely to stay as close as possible to the leg line, because the terrain is mostly runnable open forest, and there is no significant climb to justify a major detour.

At first glance, this area in the middle of the leg, might look like something you want to avoid, but in reality, there is no substantial climb. Let’s take a closer look at the relief formation along this leg. I will mark the index contours in red.

It is easy to see the relief formation. In general, it is a large downhill. But what about this formation in the middle of the leg? It consists of only two index contour lines, which represent the upper part of this area. Here we also have a saddle between two hills, with only one contour of climb.

So, I predict that the best route will be slightly to the right in order to reach  saddle 1. We should avoid the first marsh and then either go around it or even cut through it, depending on conditions. The key idea is to aim for this saddle 2.

From there, we have only one contour of climb, followed by a re-entrant that finishes near this open hill 3. Then we aim for the small hills  and marsh 4. We locate ourselves precisely at this point and then attack the control, which is only about 70 meters away.

What about other options? It does not make sense to go to the left to avoid the first hill, because the terrain is relatively flat (area 1). We would only avoid one or two contours, and the detour is not worth it.

Than they need to cross a hill or go around it along the marsh (section 2).  Running along the slope (section 3) there would be difficult both physically and technically, with poor runnability and challenging navigation. So I don’t think that is a good option.

Some runners might choose a wider route to the right, avoiding the dense forest 1, then cutting through a narrow marsh area 2  and reaching another saddle 3. Again, this involves only about one contour of climb, followed by downhill terrain. There are also several hills 3 and 4  along the way that can be used for confirmation.

This route is slightly longer, but not by much — probably around 15–20 seconds slower than what I expect to be the fastest option.

Let’s check all runners. We can see that the fastest routes (marked in green) use the saddle I mentioned. There is also a good time from a route slightly to the right of the leg line, but with a different approach to the same saddle.

We can see that many runners used marshes, but this heavily depends on weather conditions. It matters a lot whether the marshes were dry or wet in the previous weeks. It looks like the marshes were relatively dry.

Those who tried to avoid the 'hilly area' lost a lot of time and faced real difficulties near the control.

This is a very nice and fast leg.

There are two important points here. First, when reaching the saddle 1, we need to check our direction to ensure we are in the correct one. Second, when exiting the re-entrant 2, we must also check direction, because it does not lead exactly along the leg line, and similar-looking hills can be confusing.

If we correctly identify these hills, finishing the leg accurately should not be a problem.

This final area — with the marsh, cliff, boulder, and open knoll — is quite distinctive. We should see the marsh, approach closer to the cliff, and use the additional knoll as a final confirmation before descending to the control.

You can watch the full video on my YouTube channel via the link below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POYLoF-4qAc&t=1s

channel: https://www.youtube.com/@a.aleksandr2023

Aleksandr Alekseyonok, March 18, 2026.